Monday, June 7, 2004

Six In One Hand Half Dozen In The Other

The long term and short term events impacting mortgage rate levels will be playing against the other.

May's Producer Price Index (PPI), which helps measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts expect to see an increase of 0.6% in the overall index. Rising inflation will cause investors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher.

If there is poor demand for Treasury sales mortgage rates will move higher shortly after the results are posted. If demand is strong bond prices will rise and mortgage rates will move lower. So where are rates headed based on the present data? In the short term rates may dip slightly but expect rates to rise steadily by weeks end.