Tuesday, May 18, 2004

What A Ride - Interest Rates May Dip Slightly

Yesterday was quite some ride. I'm still reeling from it all.

A trio of negative developments on the financial and political level sent prices of oversold U.S. Treasury securities to their highest levels in weeks, as yields edged down. The bombing in Baghdad frustrated Iraq self-governing transition efforts. Then there was the impact of the surprise election of the Congress party in India on its economy.

The Price of oil hit a new high causing further concerns about the effect of soaring oil prices on U.S. economic growth. Add to this the fret about when the Fed will increase interest rates and Poof! The stage is set for a slight decrease in mortgage rates.

From the looks of things I'd say if other economic reports come in weaker than expected and global events continue to influence traders to buy Treasuries, prices will rise and yields will fall. This scenario could result in a slight to significant decrease in some mortgage rates. What then? I've got my ideas.